Summer Research Fellowship Programme of India's Science Academies

Disease modelling and data analysis

Niviya Saji

Integrated MSc. Statistics, Pondicherry University, Kalapet, Puducherry 605 014

Dr. Ram Rup Sarkar

Principal Scientist, Chemical Engineering and Process Development (CEPD), CSIR-National Chemical Laboratory, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pune 411 008


Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) also known as 'kala-azar' is a vector-borne disease caused by a protozoan parasite Leishmania donovani and transmitted through the bites of infected female phlebotomine sand flies. This study focuses on the spatiotemporal analysis and hotspot detection of reported kala-azar infected regions in India. It also focuses on annual variations of VL cases and deaths due to VL cases from 1992 to April 2019, its relationship with rainfall, temperature difference, wetland area and rooftop materials were studied. Around 6, 29,872 VL cases were reported in India from 1992 to 2019 April with 6192 deaths approximately. Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal are the states in India with the highest burden of disease. It was observed that moderate amount of rainfall, humid temperature, and large number of houses with rooftops made of grass/thatch/mud/bamboo/wood etc., burnt brick or handmade tiles and large area of marshy land appears to be the predictive variables for the kala-azar incidence which provide excellent shelter for the sand fly.

Keywords: Visceral leishmaniasis, Spatiotemporal analysis, Hotspot detection, Spatial autocorrelation

Written, reviewed, revised, proofed and published with